The Republican who shocked the world 4 years ago could lose because of redistricting
Brat, an economics professor, easily beat his Democratic opponent in 2014 and had little trouble in 2016. But less noticed was that President Trump’s margin of victory in the Seventh Congressional District was far smaller than Mitt Romney’s had been in 2012.
Romney won 57 percent to President Obama’s 41 percent in the district, which stretches from the west side of Richmond, up through rural central Virginia to the western portion of Fredericksburg and then further up into the exurbs of Washington, D.C.
But Trump beat Hillary Clinton by a margin of only 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent.
The district “became less Republican,” John Findlay, executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia, told Yahoo News. It remains “a fundamentally Republican district,” he said.
But Findlay also allowed that the contest “is going to be close, for sure.”
Spanberger is a former CIA officer who served on the West Coast and in Europe, and speaks four languages. She is running as a bipartisan problem solver, trying to portray Brat as an ideologue more interested in winning arguments than fixing problems.
Spanberger spokesman Justin Jones said he expects the race to be so close it could come down to hundreds of votes. The loss of several thousand reliable Republican votes through redistricting, then, would factor heavily in the result in that scenario. Brat won with about 218,000 votes in 2016 versus Eric Cantor’s 222,000 in 2012, the previous presidential year.
Jones also said that the statewide, top-of-ticket contest between incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Corey Stewart is helpful to Democrats whose names are down the ballot — like Spanberger.
Raising Stewart’s profile at the last minute may be a tactic to further rouse Democratic voter enthusiasm in key congressional races in the state, like Brat and Spanberger’s, and to turn off some Republican voters who are on the fence about going to the polls. Brat has never had to run toward the middle before, and is selling himself on a basic tax- and regulation-cutting platform, focusing on economic growth.
Republicans are telling voters that Spanberger is more liberal than she appears. Though she has said that she will not support California Rep. Nancy Pelosi for speaker if Democrats regain control of the House, Findlay said that “other than that, she is totally in lockstep with the Democratic agenda.”
On Thursday morning, Trump turned his attention to the race and tweeted his support.
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