Texas takes center stage in the midterms as Democrats see a chance to win big
Texas has taken center stage ahead of next month’s midterm elections as Democrats grow more optimistic about their chances in the state up and down the ballot.
For months, the state’s highly contested Senate race has dominated midterm elections headlines, but Democrats say they are seeing opportunity in other Texas contests as well. The Democratic Governors Association and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) announced this week they each plan to give $1 million to support Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the state’s gubernatorial race.
Meanwhile, leaked audio of Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton blaming the national GOP as Democrat James Talarico leads in the polls has rocked the Senate race.
Still, President Trump and Vice President Vance have traveled multiple times to the state to bolster Lone Star State Republicans in competitive contests. Trump is set to rally alongside Paxton and Republican House candidate Carlos De La Cruz in San Antonio Wednesday evening.
“Texas is clearly in play,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based GOP strategist who ran Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-Texas) 2014 reelection bid.
“Republicans understand they have a real threat they need to defend against, and Democrats see a real opportunity where they can go on offense, and potentially win a U.S. Senate seat and maybe even the governor’s race as well,” he added.
A New York Times/Siena University poll from Saturday showed Talarico with a 7 percentage point lead over Paxton, while Hinojosa edged out Texas Gov. Greg Abbott by 3 points.
“I think we waited too long to send in the cavalry,” Paxton donor Dan Eberhart said when asked about the state of the race.
On Wednesday, another leak of Paxton’s remarks from a closed-door fundraiser surfaced, with the state attorney general blaming the Iran war and high gas prices for his standing in the polls.
“It’s not tariffs. … It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel,” Paxton told donors and lobbyists at a closed-door fundraiser, according to audio obtained by Axios.
A spokesperson for Paxton’s campaign told the outlet that the development is a “non-story,” adding that Paxton acknowledged “what every Texan already knows: gas and diesel prices are too high.”
One Republican strategist blasted Paxton’s remarks to donors as “hugely problematic.”
“Why would you say those things? I mean, it’s just unimaginable, to be honest, that you would let your guard down that much and say things that hurt your standing, the president’s standing, and frankly just feeds into an already challenging narrative,” the strategist said.
Steinhauser called the intraparty squabbling “unhelpful.”
“This is not the time to be doing that,” Steinhauser said. “I don’t want to see Republicans out there starting the blame game. I think that creates a psychology of losing. It creates a psychology of depressing turnout.”
“There definitely is sort of an undercurrent of potential blame game that’s already starting,” he added.
Other Republicans warn the Senate race’s drama could have a detrimental impact on the state’s House races, as Democrats seek to win back control of the lower chamber in November.
“It is important that Paxton wins,” Eberhart said. “A Paxton loss likely brings with it six House losses.”
Texas is home to six competitive House races this cycle in the 9th, 15th, 23rd, 28th, 34th and 35th districts.
Abbott and his Republicans sought to boost their party’s chances on the congressional map by shifting five blue seats toward Republicans via mid-decade redistricting. The strategy was replicated in other red states across the country including Florida.
However, Democrats predict their candidates are on track to fare better in the races given the poor political environment for Republicans, including Trump’s standing with Latino and Hispanic voters in the state.
“This was the first stone thrown in the gerrymander wars, and they f‑‑‑ed it up,” said one Democratic operative.
Chad Wilbanks, former executive director of the Texas Republican Party, said it’s realistic that Republicans win three to four competitive House seats.
“When you try to pick up more seats, you stretch districts thin, and everything that the Texas Legislature did to improve our congressional seats here in Texas they felt was the right thing to do,” Wilbanks said.
Trump’s Wednesday visit to Texas’s 35th District in San Antonio is one of these redrawn seats. Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R) in Texas’s competitive 15th District, is facing Democrat Johnny Garcia.
“Republicans’ big idea to save their flailing Texas dummymander is to put Donald Trump front and center. There’s just one problem — his approval numbers are in the toilet,” said Madison Andrus, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Republicans, on the other hand, maintain the president is the party’s best tool to turnout the base.
“Having President Trump come to Texas is exactly what the Republicans need in the midterms because he is activating our low propensity voters who powered him to a victory in 2024,” one Republican operative said.
One Republican who will not be present at Wednesday night’s rally is Abbott. The governor cited scheduling conflicts, but the move raised eyebrows in Texas and Washington.
“He knows that showing up with the president, and showing up with the president in a big city market like San Antonio is a really bad political idea,” the GOP strategist said.
Others argue that Abbott is likely polling better than public polling suggests, adding that the issue isn’t necessarily whether he will win — rather the margins of his victory.
“He’s probably overperforming the polling a little bit, but it’s a real race for sure,” Steinhauser said.
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For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.This article originally appeared on The Hill at https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6135173-texas-midterm-elections-trump-visit/
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