Many states deciding control of the Senate are seeing a big boost in early voting, AP analysis shows
Many states deciding control of the Senate are seeing a big boost in early voting, AP analysis shows
WASHINGTON (AP) — Voter turnout is soaring compared with the last midterm election in many of the states that are expected to decide control of the U.S. Senate, according to an Associated Press analysis of early voting two weeks before Election Day.
In Texas, early voting is up 74% compared with 2022. In Kansas it’s more than doubled. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio also have seen increases of more than 30% in early in-person and mail voting compared with the same point in 2022.
Democrats are trying to flip Republican-held Senate seats in each of those states. In most of them, Republicans are accounting for a smaller share of advance voters than they did four years ago.
The AP’s data, which runs through Tuesday, gives a snapshot of potential voter enthusiasm — and where it might be lacking — after early voting has opened in most states during a midterm cycle that has shifted in often unpredictable ways.
Dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the persistently high cost of living, and high gas and diesel prices caused by the Iran war have generated political blowback against Republicans in places the party didn’t anticipate having to defend this year.
Nationally, more than 13 million mail-in and early in-person votes have been cast, compared with 9 million at the same point in 2022. The increase also reflects a few additional states that expanded their early voting opportunities and ones that made more of their data available since the last midterms.
Midterm elections typically favor the party out of power in Washington. With Republicans in control of both chambers of Congress and the White House, it’s a distinctly different environment than 2022, when Democrats were in charge.
Democrats energized by competitive Senate races in GOP-leaning states
Senate Democrats were expected to face a tough map this cycle, defending a number of battlegrounds with only a few opportunities to flip seats in areas Trump won by single digits in 2024. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber.
But with gas and diesel prices up significantly from where they were a year ago and Trump increasingly unpopular among voters, Democrats have been wading into traditionally Republican states, hoping to win there for the first time in decades.
Earlier this month, Republicans pulled back spending in a once-competitive North Carolina Senate race and dumped close to $12 million into Kansas, a state Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, to support GOP Sen. Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Trump held a rally Monday in the state, where more than 55,000 people have cast their ballots so far — more than double the 27,000 people who had voted at this point in the cycle in 2022. That year, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly narrowly won reelection while Republican Sen. Jerry Moran won overwhelmingly.
Specific races seem to be drawing voters to the polls
Texas also has seen a massive surge, even though early in-person voting just started Monday. The number of ballots cast two weeks from Election Day has reached nearly 1 million, up from roughly 550,000 at the same stage in 2022. Texas’ data doesn’t show ballots returned by party registration.
The surge comes as Democrat James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton compete for the Senate seat currently held by GOP Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in a primary runoff with Trump’s endorsement.
Democrats have targeted Paxton, who is benefiting from millions in outside spending, over corruption allegations and his impeachment by the Texas Legislature, though he was later acquitted.
Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat to win statewide in more than three decades. Incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott also is in an election fight against Democratic state lawmaker Gina Hinojosa.
Ohio has top races up and down the ballot this year, with tight contests for U.S. Senate, House and governor. Total spending on the Ohio Senate race will reach close to $500 million, according to AdImpact.
The increased attention is reflected in the votes, with 156,000 more ballots cast so far compared with 2022, a 30% increase. Some voting laws have changed in Ohio since 2022, including the state eliminating its grace period for receiving mail ballots, a change that forces voters to return those ballots earlier.
In Maine, where five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking reelection against Democrat Troy Jackson, there’s been an increase of 39% in ballots cast this year compared with two weeks before the election in the 2022 midterm.
Advance vote hasn’t increased in every competitive state
In Michigan and Georgia, two states where Democrats are defending Senate seats, the total number of early votes cast is high, but similar to four years ago.
Both states shattered their midterm voting records in 2022, with reproductive rights on the ballot in Michigan and a highly competitive U.S. Senate race in Georgia that year.
Iowa, which voted three times for Trump in presidential years, has competitive contests for governor, Senate and in three of its four House districts. Early voting there two weeks out from the election is down about 6% from the same period four years ago.
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Ryan Dubicki and Michaela Herbst of The Associated Press Election Services team contributed to this report from Washington.
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