Is the GOP facing a ‘thumping’ or ‘shellacking’ — or can it pull off an escape?
In 2006 President George W. Bush called it a “thumping.” In 2010 President Barack Obama compared it to a “shellacking.” If the polls and prognostications are correct and Republicans end up losing the House on Nov. 6, how will President Trump describe the experience?
Still, because Democrats need to flip a full 23 seats to retake the House, there’s also long been a very real possibility of them falling short.
This was the week that appeared to change.
Why the shift? And is it likely to hold through Election Day?
Yet this shouldn’t surprise anyone. With 10 Democrats up for reelection in states that Trump won in 2016 versus only one blue-state Republican, the 2018 Senate landscape may be the most GOP-friendly in modern U.S. history.
And so, unlike in the House, whatever happens in the Senate is likely to say more about the map than the mood of the country. If Republicans keep the Senate while losing the House, the two results shouldn’t be seen as canceling each other out. In fact, the same thing happened to Obama in 2010 — the House went Republican; the Senate stayed Democratic — and he still conceded that it had been a shellacking. Nobody called it a split decision.
So why was this such a dire week for House Republicans — and, by extension, the GOP as a whole? The first rule of political reporting is to follow the money. The third quarter of 2018 ended on Sept. 30; campaign fundraising reports were released to the public Monday, giving us our final pre-election glimpse at the perennial money chase.
It was an epic blowout.
“We’re getting our asses kicked,” one Republican consultant told the site. “Nothing else to say.”
Of course, fundraising totals aren’t election returns. Having more money doesn’t guarantee victory, and Republican candidates are also benefitting from spending by outside groups. That said, donations are one of the only tangible measures of voter energy and enthusiasm we have, and at this stage of the game, they even start to correlate with the results on Election Day. In the past four elections, for instance, two-thirds of House incumbents who ended September with less cash to spend than their opponents wound up losing their seats a few weeks later. Apply that ratio to this year’s midterms, and Democrats would already be netting 22 of the 23 seats they need to flip the House.
Money isn’t the only bad sign for Republicans this week.
To be sure, there were some bright spots this week for House Republicans. As Politico reported Thursday, Democrats “have retreated from several battlegrounds once considered prime targets” in Minnesota, California, Texas, and Florida, and recently started spending again to “blunt an unexpected surge” by Republican incumbent Rod Blum in Iowa. Politico also reports that “internal [GOP] polls show the president’s approval ratings have increased by an average of 5 points in a handful of swing districts.”
But the big picture is still bleak, and elsewhere, desperation is showing. That’s certainly the case in California’s traditionally conservative 50th Congressional District, east of San Diego, where Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter was indicted earlier this year for misspending more than $250,000 in campaign funds on everything from tequila shots to airfare for his family’s pet rabbit.
Don’t hold your breath for Trump to deliver his own version of “thumping” or “shellacking,” though. When the AP asked whether the president, like his predecessors, would accept any “responsibility” for a loss on Nov. 6, he did not sound open to the idea.
“No,” Trump said. “I think I’m helping people.”
And anyway, he added, “I’m not running.”
Rep. Marsha Blackburn, running for Tennessee’s open Senate seat, campaigns in Mount Juliet, Tenn. (Photo: Holly Bailey/Yahoo News)
“On Obamacare, I want to repeal Obamacare, reduce premiums, protect preexisting conditions and expand access,” said Cruz.
The first part of that scenario has played out so far in Scott’s latest campaign, his quest for a U.S. Senate seat in the November elections. Scott grabbed a lead in the race in late June but fell behind over the past month.
But a key element is missing compared to his past wins. It’s not a Republican wave year, as it was in 2010 and 2014. Instead, the Democratic base seems more motivated to vote than the GOP rank and file. That simple fact could be the biggest challenge for Scott, the former health care executive whose net worth is estimated to be around $250 million.
“Scott’s won two 1-point races with the wind at his back, and I’m not sure the wind is at his back this time,” Steve Schale, a veteran Democratic consultant in the state, told Yahoo News.
Scott, a Republican, is trying to unseat incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat serving his 18th year in the Senate. Scott’s advantages include his personal fortune and his ability to raise money, his relentlessness on the campaign trail — and his relative youth, being, at 65, a decade younger than the 76-year-old Nelson.
“Running against Rick Scott, at times it is demoralizing. You know you only have so much money. You know he wants to get you into a war of attrition. You know you can’t win that. You’re polling all the time and trying to figure out the amount of pain you can take,” Schale said.
Nelson’s campaign held off on spending on television until the end of summer. It did not run TV ads until Aug. 29, the day after the Republican primary ended. Schale called that strategy “very smart.”
O’Rourke, a three-term congressman from El Paso whose campaign has attracted large crowds and celebrity support, has spent much of his candidacy preaching a message of hope and civility and decrying negative attacks from his GOP rival.
But days after telling supporters that he would get tougher and offer more “contrast” with Cruz, O’Rourke took the stage in San Antonio and immediately went after his opponent, questioning why he hasn’t stood up to Trump or delivered more for average Texans. He repeatedly accused Cruz of being more focused on his own political ambitions than his constituents.
“Ted Cruz has put his career above the interests and priorities of Texas,” O’Rourke said. “Ted Cruz is for Ted Cruz.”
Brat, an economics professor, easily beat his Democratic opponent in 2014 and again had little trouble in 2016. But less noticed was that President Trump’s margin of victory in the Seventh Congressional District was far smaller than Mitt Romney’s had been in 2012.
King’s national reputation as a strident foe of immigration has meant a bonanza for Scholten. Even in the current political environment, King is infamous for his inflammatory rhetoric.
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