Iran threatens to strike Gulf oil wells: What would be the consequences?
Iran threatens to strike Gulf oil wells: What would be the consequences?
(NewsNation) — President Donald Trump vowed to strike Iran Wednesday night, calling a ceasefire “over” but later saying new U.S. strikes would not mean a return to full-scale war.
Trump’s comments drew a response from Iran, which threatened to attack oil wells in the Middle East.
Trump has raised the possibility of striking Kharg Island, a critical hub in Iran’s oil infrastructure, a possibility he has repeatedly brought up throughout the conflict. The island handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports, and a strike would remove a large amount of oil from the global market.
Iran vows to target Gulf oil and gas infrastructure
Iran responded to the president’s latest remarks with a threat to bomb oil wells in the region if the U.S. were to conduct more strikes.
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U.S. allies in the region — including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates — are the most likely targets of attacks. Iran has previously targeted Gulf energy infrastructure after strikes on its own oil infrastructure, including attacks on oil refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and a strike on a liquefied natural gas hub in Qatar.
Strikes on oil and natural gas fields come with significant risks and consequences. The strikes can spark massive fires that spread quickly due to the abundance of fuel while releasing pollutants into the air. Damage to infrastructure may lead to sustained downtime for operations, further tightening the supply of oil from the critical region.
During the first Gulf War in 1991, Iraqi forces set fire to more than 500 oil fields in Kuwait as they retreated from the country. The resulting damage was considered an environmental disaster on par with Chernobyl and the chemical leak in Bhopal, India.
Environmental damage from oil fires
The fires from those wells proved difficult to contain, taking about nine months to extinguish. Efforts to contain the fires included extinguishing them with seawater, capping wells, cutting off oxygen with explosives and building infrastructure to divert oil away from the fires.
During those months, spilled oil polluted the water and soil in the area. Oil spreading over the ground blocked the absorption of oxygen and water, altering the fertility of the soil maintained by microbes and earthworms. Oil also flowed into the Persian Gulf, killing roughly 20,000 birds and risking the populations of sea cows, dolphins and turtles.
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Smoke from the fires was trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere, carried beyond the immediate area into surrounding countries, and amplified the impact of the fires.
Health impacts from oil fires
The smoke produced from burning oil fields contains some of the same pollutants as air in urban environments, but others rarely appear at the same concentrations. The smoke contains particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, heavy metals and unburned hydrocarbons that can cause immediate health effects, including respiratory problems and skin irritation.
Veterans exposed to the smoke began suffering symptoms of what came to be called “Gulf War Illness,” characterized by chronic fatigue, headaches, muscle and joint pain, sleep disturbances, digestive problems and difficulty concentrating.
Smoke from oil fields is only considered one factor in Gulf War Illness, but the little research that exists on civilians living near damaged oil infrastructure has shown links to higher rates of respiratory illnesses, asthma, headaches and dizziness.
As with the Kuwait fires, those impacts are unlikely to be contained to the countries where strikes occur. Already, U.S. strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure resulted in 29,800 tonnes of sulfur dioxide released into the air, more than was released when Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull erupted in 2010. That toxic smoke spread to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and China.
Persian Gulf response to Iranian strikes
Iran has launched small-scale drone attacks on oil fields in neighboring countries already during the conflict, which have largely been met with a restrained, defensive posture. Although leaders have expressed a desire to retaliate, there has been no significant military response.
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That could change if Iran launches more intensive strikes. Countries would face a choice between continuing diplomatic efforts, potentially without U.S. involvement, and fraying the alliance that supplies them with advanced weaponry.
Neighboring countries could also launch their own military strikes. If carried out on Iranian oil and gas infrastructure, those strikes would intensify the environmental and health impacts of the fighting.
Gulf countries could also appeal to the U.S., seeking more protection for their infrastructure, a request that would risk drawing America more deeply into a conflict instead of reaching the exit ramp the White House has been seeking.
Countries in the region do have defense systems in place to protect oil and natural gas infrastructure, mostly advanced missile defense systems supplied by the U.S. However, the vastness of oil and natural gas fields and production facilities makes that defense difficult.
Impacts of oil strikes on the global economy
Any widespread disruption to oil infrastructure will also flow through the global economy, with the Persian Gulf holding roughly 60% of the world’s oil reserves.
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Already, Brent crude oil prices jumped to nearly $80 a barrel following Trump’s comments, the highest level seen in weeks, although still down from the conflict’s all-time high of $110 in May. West Texas Intermediate crude, which the U.S. relies on, jumped to $73 a barrel, up from $67 before the war.
Strikes on neighboring countries could further throttle the amount of crude and natural gas entering the global supply. While the U.S. does not rely directly on oil from the Persian Gulf, rising Brent crude prices also raise West Texas crude prices, potentially signaling a return to higher energy and gas prices for American consumers already frustrated by an inflated cost of living.
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