Midterms 2026: Will Republicans or Democrats win control of the House? These are the key races to watch.
Midterms 2026: Will Republicans or Democrats win control of the House? These are the key races to watch.
Democrats are playing offense. Republicans are playing defense. But the GOP also has certain advantages it didn’t have in the past.
It’s crunch time. With less than two weeks to go until the 2026 midterm elections, Democratic and Republican candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives nationwide are making one last push to persuade voters in their districts — and help their party win or retain control of the chamber on Nov. 3.
The stakes are high. President Trump has enjoyed complete Republican control of Congress for the first half of his second term. Flipping the House would give Democrats the power to block parts of the president’s agenda, investigate his administration and even impeach him (again).
Historically speaking, a president’s party almost always loses seats when voters return to the polls to judge his first two years in office. (The average number lost since World War II? Twenty-six.) Sometimes, the backlash is so pervasive that the president’s party loses seats across a wide range of competitive districts — a phenomenon known as a “wave” election.
But the past doesn’t necessarily predict the future, and Republicans have certain advantages today that they didn’t have before. Here’s what needs to happen for each party to come out on top.
The races to watch
The first thing to know about any House election is that while all 435 congressional districts are technically up for grabs, roughly 80% of those contests (representing about 350 seats) are not considered competitive.
House incumbents have always had huge advantages: money and name recognition, mostly. But their head start has only widened in recent years as partisan polarization and redistricting have helped make the vast majority of congressional districts “safe” for one party. These days, incumbents tend to focus more on fending off primary challengers. The general election can be a breeze in comparison.
As a result, this year’s true battleground is relatively small. According to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s “race ratings,” just 17 contests are genuine “tossups” at this point. Another 16 “lean Democratic,” and 17 “lean Republican.” There’s also a third competitive category that includes 18 seats where Democrats are the “likely” winners, and 13 seats where the same could be said about Republicans.
That’s 81 competitive districts — again, out of 435.
It’s clear from looking at this year’s ratings which party is playing more defense and which is playing more offense — and where. Only 30 Democratic seats are considered competitive, and more than half of them (17) are “likely” to remain Democratic, according to Cook. Just five Democratic seats are tossups. Just two are leaning Republican.
In contrast, a full 51 Republican seats are considered competitive — and about half of them are tossups (12) or leaning Democratic (12).
Geographically, this year’s tossups are concentrated in certain kinds of places: Rust Belt districts in states that have swung from party to party in the past (such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio); Mid-Atlantic suburbs (in states such as New York, Virginia and North Carolina) where Trump has scrambled some of the usual coalitions; and Sun Belt districts (think Florida, Texas, California and Nevada) where Latinos factor heavily. Trump carried many of these areas in 2024.
On Friday, Cook shifted another 19 of its race ratings toward Democrats — part of a pattern that has seen the outlet move a total of 63 race ratings toward Democrats over the last month.
“Republicans’ path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated,” Cook’s House analyst wrote. “Following this latest round of ratings changes, Democrats now are favored outright in the 218 seats they need to win control of the House. In other words, 220 seats are rated either Solid, Likely or Lean Democrat. Republicans, meanwhile, are favored in 198 seats, rated Solid, Likely, or Lean Republican.”
Overall, the map gives Democrats more pickup options — which means more paths to a House majority.
The path to a Democratic House
Senate and governor contests can be quirky — more state-specific and personality-driven. But national dynamics tend to play a larger role in shaping the composition of the incoming House.
So it’s not just a matter of who has more targets on the board. It’s that the board itself tends to tilt to one side or the other, taking most of those targets with it. A recent example was the 2010 midterm election, when impatience with America’s slow recovery from the 2008 financial collapse and frustration with President Barack Obama’s response helped Republicans gain 64 House seats.
Beyond the history of midterm backlash against the president’s party, Democrats have two big advantages right now. One is that the current Republican majority is so minuscule — just 219 votes to 214, including an independent who caucuses with Republicans — that Democrats only need a net gain of three seats to win back the House.
The other is that the board seems to be tilting in Democrats’ favor — assuming the polls are right.
Surveys suggest there’s one underlying factor pulling the national electorate to the left: dissatisfaction with Trump. According to the data journalists at Silver Bulletin, an average of 60% of Americans currently disapprove of how Trump is handling his job vs. 37% who approve. That puts the president’s net approval rating at -23% — near his all-time low.
Trump is earning even lower marks on voters’ top issue this year: the cost of living. Shortly after he returned to office, roughly equal numbers of Americans approved and disapproved of how the president was handling inflation. But today — as tariffs and the Iran war help drive prices up — 71% disapprove and 25% approve. That’s a 46-point gap.
President Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally at F&M Bank Arena on Oct. 10, 2026, in Clarksville, Tenn.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)Democrats aren’t particularly popular. But for the party in power, it may be hard to overcome this level of dissatisfaction with the status quo. That’s why, when pollsters ask their so-called generic ballot question — If an election for U.S. Congress were held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your district? — Americans are currently giving Democrats a substantial lead of more than 9 percentage points, on average.
Making matters worse for Republicans, that lead has grown over the last month as swing voters who favored Trump in 2024 — including some Latinos and independents — say they’re planning to vote Democratic.
To put a 9-point lead in perspective, Democrats were leading by an average of 7.6 points on the generic ballot at this point in 2018, with Trump as president and Republican majorities in the House and Senate. On Election Day, they picked up 41 seats and flipped the House.
If the polls are right, Democrats might win control of the House again.
The path to a Republican House
But are the polls right? Recently, Republicans have pointed to some surprising survey results on the Senate side — including Democratic leads in rural red states such as Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska — to argue that pollsters might be misjudging public sentiment.
They’re not wrong to say the polls have missed in the past. Polling errors are commonplace; they happen in most elections. But they tend to be random and to change directions from one cycle to another. The Trump era has been a little different. In each of the three presidential contests that Trump himself has competed in, the final average of polls conducted before Election Day underestimated Republicans’ performance in the popular vote by an average of 3.8 percentage points, according to data journalist Nate Silver.
The theory is that a phenomenon called nonresponse bias — in which Democratic voters are more eager or available to respond to pollsters than Republican voters — might have made Democratic support look stronger than it actually was.
Pollsters try to adjust for this by weighting their results — that is, using statistical methods to give less weight to respondents who are overrepresented demographically and more weight to respondents who are underrepresented demographically. But it’s difficult to predict in advance who will show up on Election Day.
This time around, there are signs that rural Republicans are not responding to pollsters in certain states.
Could that mean Republican candidates in those places will outperform their polling? Possibly. But experts say it may also mean that rural Republicans are less supportive of the GOP than they were in 2024 — potentially voting Democratic or staying home on Nov. 3.
A voter walks toward his polling place.
(REUTERS / REUTERS)After all, there’s been virtually no polling bias toward Democrats in Trump era elections when Trump himself wasn’t on the ballot. In fact, the polls since 2016 have overestimated Republican support in midterm elections (by an average of 0.2%) and off-year, special and runoff elections (by an average of 1.3%), according to Silver.
Either way, pollsters aren’t seeing signs of this rural effect in most states — and even if they were, it might make only a minor dent in Democrats’ 9-point national lead.
Redistricting is the other Republican advantage. House redistricting efforts typically take place every 10 years, after each new census reveals changes in population distribution. But last summer, Trump successfully pushed GOP legislators in Texas to pass new congressional district boundaries five years earlier than normal to help Republicans win five additional House seats in 2026. This kicked off a tit-for-tat cycle that saw nine states adopt new congressional maps for the midterms — some to benefit Democrats, others Republicans.
Now that the dust has settled, Cook projects that Republicans could win nine seats because of redistricting (in Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee and Texas), while Democrats could win five (in California and Utah). If that plays out, it would net the GOP four seats overall.
It’s not what Republicans initially hoped to gain from gerrymandering. “We’re not gonna win all 13 of those redistricted seats. That’s correct. We’re not,” GOP House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota told Axios recently. But it’s also not nothing.
The hope for the GOP is that some combination of polling error and redistricting boost — along with a late influx of hundreds of millions of dollars to help defend districts Trump won in 2024 — will be just enough to preserve their slim House majority.
Here’s what the weather is likely to bring on Thanksgiving in Pittsburgh.
HAMOUD, Jordan, Oct 24 (Reuters) – The US embassy in Amman said security had been stepped up at malls, foreign embassies and other locations across Jordan after Friday’s deadly attack on a church in Jordan that authorities described as a terrorist act by extremists. Seven people were killed and 40 were injured when gunmen opened fire continuously for several minutes during a funeral at the Greek Orthodox church in Karak governorate, the head of Jordan’s Public Security Directorate said.
An amber weather warning has been issued for much of Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland and northern England, as Storm Boelo approaches.
Javier Milei had denied acting fraudulently when a cryptocurrency nosedived after he deleted a social media post about it.
SEOUL, Oct 24 (Reuters) – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has arrived in Dandong, China, on a visit to the neighbouring country via a newly opened bridge, South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported on
AL-MUSHAIRFEH, Jordan, Oct 23 (Reuters) – Seven people were killed on Friday when gunmen opened fire during a funeral at a church in Jordan, said the head of the country’s Public Security Directorate, in a rare attack on Jordan’s Christian minority that authorities described as a terrorist act by extremists. Speaking at a press conference, Major General Abdallah al-Maaytah said most of those wounded in the shooting at the Hamoud Church in Karak governorate were still receiving treatment, and
Arif Patel “should not be beyond the reach of the justice system,” says the PM’s anti-corruption champion.
About 70 children attend Saturday lessons at the primary school, which is due to close in August 2027.
A recent spate of attacks on properties in the Salford area has seen them daubed with “No HMO” graffiti.
The University of Bradford was founded in 1966 as part of a revolution in higher education.
The plaques at Rotherham fire station highlight the loss of life in service by crew members.
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has visited China in his first visit to the country in a year, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.The agency cited an unidentified government source saying Kim arrived in the Chinese border city of Dandong after crossing a newly opened bridge between the countries.
York’s National Railway Museum opens an entrance on Hudson Boulevard close to the Station Hall building.
Friends of 20-year-old Carla Georgescu describe her as “gentle, attentive and kind”.
Sherborne school is sharing the father of modern computing’s story with future generations.
Hundreds of thousands are expected to turn out, as more than 70,000 police officers are to be deployed over some may defy restrictions.
A round-up of stories from local newspapers and websites from the past week in the West of England.
Conservation groups say black poplars are endangered due to felling, land drainage and habitat loss.
