Trump approval hits record low, handing Democrats a clear midterm edge

October 19, 2026 3oliver

Trump approval hits record low, handing Democrats a clear midterm edge

Updated Sun, October 18, 2026 at 2:08 PM UTC

9 min read

Two weeks from Election Day, Republicans face a bleak political landscape. President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low, and support for Democrats in the race for control of Congress is rising as inflationary pressures contribute to an acrid mood among voters, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.

Trump’s approval among U.S. adults now stands at 33 percent, with 66 percent disapproving; 52 percent said they disapprove strongly. That approval rating is four percentage points lower than in July and eight points lower than at this point last year. It’s lower than at any point in his first term. Among likely voters, Trump’s approval is 38 percent, with 62 percent disapproving.

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The poll also finds that, for the first time in more than a decade, Democrats are seen as more trusted to deal with the economy.

In the competition for control of the House, Democrats hold an eight-point lead among registered and likely voters, an improvement for the party since The Post’s July poll, when the Democratic lead was three points with registered voters.

Trump is central to Republicans’ struggles. In a separate question, the poll asked voters whether they would rather have a Democratic-led Congress acting as a check on Trump or a Republican one to support his agenda. By 58 percent to 39 percent, registered voters said they prefer the Democrats. That margin is roughly double what it was a year ago.

The collective results of the new survey reveal an electorate that has lost faith in the president, is deeply worried about his decision to go to war with Iran, is feeling the effects of that war – especially the price of gasoline – on their pocketbooks and now has more confidence in Democrats than Republicans to deal with major issues. Today, 72 percent say the country is heading in the wrong direction, up five points since April.

The new survey findings do not predict how individual House or Senate races will turn out in November. But they help to explain why Republicans are on the defensive in these final weeks, even in areas where they have traditionally held a strong advantage.

Republicans still enjoy an overall lead in money to pour into political advertising that they hope will hold back the Democratic tide. Tellingly, those resources are shifting to protect some candidates in redder areas, a sign of the growing concerns among party leaders and strategists about the overall climate.

As always, the question of who turns out to vote will decide how individual races go, with many of the most competitive Senate races still in the balance. Nationally, Democrats have a big advantage among those who said they’re “certain to vote” or have already done so, but Republicans fare relatively well among voters who turned out in the 2024 or 2022 elections, which are also strong predictors of voting.

One critical unknown is how many of Trump’s 77 million voters from the 2024 election will cast ballots. Midterm turnout is always lower than in presidential years and Republicans have had a harder time turning out their supporters when Trump is not on the ballot.

The poll echoes those challenges.

Democratic registered voters are more likely than Republicans to say they are certain to vote or have already done so, 75 percent versus 67 percent. While 75 percent of Republicans who support the MAGA movement say they’re certain to vote, that drops to 57 percent among non-MAGA Republicans (though more than a quarter of these non-MAGA Republicans said they prefer Democrats in control of the next Congress). By contrast, 79 percent of Democrats who support the Democratic Socialists of America say they are certain to vote, as do 73 percent of nonsocialist Democrats.

Presidential approval has long been one of the most important indicators of how a midterm election will go. Based on history, Republicans are poised to lose seats from their narrow House majority and likely to lose control of the chamber next month. But how many is more difficult to predict because, in contrast to some past years, there are fewer swing districts.

Republicans may also retain backing from voters who expressed only limited dissatisfaction with the president. The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds that among the 10 percent of likely voters who said they “somewhat disapprove” of Trump’s performance, 58 percent prefer the Republican candidate for the House.

Economic issues stand as a major threat to the GOP’s hold on the House and Senate. Trump’s economic approval rating has fallen to 28 percent, down from 33 percent in July, 41 percent in February and 49 percent at this point in the 2018 midterm election campaign. About 3 in 4 Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living in the United States.

By a 3-1 margin, Americans said the state of the economy is either not so good or poor. Most Republicans (53 percent) rate the economy positively compared with 9 percent of Democrats and 16 percent of independents. At this point in 2022, when President Joe Biden was in office, impressions of the economy were almost identically negative. But in a sign of how party allegiance can affect attitudes, 54 percent of Democrats then rated the economy positively, compared with 8 percent of Republicans and 16 percent of independents.

Economic strains on many Americans are great enough that 48 percent say they are financially worse off than when Trump returned to office in 2025. That represents the highest percentage saying this about any president in Post-ABC polls since 1986. Among these financially stressed Americans, 78 percent favor Democrats for Congress, along with 71 percent of independents.

Affordability is an issue that nearly all candidates are talking about this fall and the survey points to many areas of difficulty for families. The biggest is the cost of gasoline. In February, before Trump launched the war with Iran, 71 percent said gasoline was affordable. Today, as the war has disrupted supplies and shipping, pushing up gasoline and diesel prices significantly, perceptions have flipped, with 71 percent now saying gasoline is not affordable.

Majorities also say groceries, health care and home energy are unaffordable, all up significantly since before the Iran war. Fewer than 4 in 10 said going out to dinner is affordable, down from half who said this in February.

The shift against the president ripples throughout the survey. On Iran, 65 percent said it was a mistake to take military action and 68 percent disapprove of the way Trump has dealt with U.S. allies. Roughly 6 in 10 disapprove of his handling of immigration, a sharp departure from the beginning of his second term when 50 percent said they approved. A majority (56 percent) said Trump has gone too far in deporting undocumented immigrants, which compares with 48 percent in April 2025 as the deportation effort was beginning.

Trump’s negative ratings are boosted by significant criticism from his 2024 voters, including 23 percent who disapprove of his overall performance, 31 percent who disapprove of his management of the economy and 38 percent who disapprove of his handling of inflation. Most of these critics said they support Republicans for Congress, but they’re far less certain about casting ballots this year than Trump voters who approve of him.

Trump is judged harshly on several measures of his commitment to fundamental principles of democracy. At least 6 in 10 people said he is not committed to protecting freedom of the press and freedom of speech, free and fair elections, and respecting the authority of Congress or the courts.

Beyond major issues, the public disapproves of the ways Trump has conducted himself in office. The poll finds that 66 percent said he is using the presidency to enrich himself, up from 56 percent last fall. Eight in 10 think it is inappropriate that he has pushed to put his name on the Kennedy Center in Washington (59 percent view this as “completely inappropriate”), and 74 percent say it’s inappropriate that the federal government paid for television ads promoting Trump and his policies. Overall, 66 percent said they see Trump as “too extreme.”

The dissatisfaction with Trump inevitably has spilled onto a Republican Party that has been remade in his image. Registered voters said they trust Democrats over Republicans to handle the economy by 40 percent to 33 percent, the first Democratic advantage on the economy in Post-ABC polling since 2014. Voters split about evenly on this question in April and July of this year. Democrats also hold double-digit advantages on trust to handle inflation and the cost of living.

Democrats are seen as more trustworthy on many issues even though 54 percent of U.S. adults have an unfavorable view of the party, perhaps because even more Americans – 63 percent – dislike the Republican Party. The Republican Party is seen as too extreme by 55 percent of U.S. adults, compared with 36 percent who see the Democratic Party that way.

Americans hold negative impressions of the president’s MAGA movement and of democratic socialism, which has roiled the Democratic Party this year. But the MAGA movement is seen even more negatively at 69 percent unfavorable compared with 59 percent unfavorable toward democratic socialism.

One-quarter of Americans dislike both major political parties, but as often happens, these “double-haters” swing against the party in power, favoring Democrats by 58 percent to 32 percent in support for Congress.

One factor boosting Democrats this fall, and another sign of how Trump’s policies and performance have hurt him and his party, is a shift in the partisan leanings of Americans. The Pew Research Center’s annual benchmarking survey – a comprehensive poll conducted over several months – found 47 percent of U.S. adults identified as Democrats or lean Democratic this spring, while 43 percent identified as or leaned Republican.

That marked a shift from both 2025, when 46 percent of adults identified as Republicans and 45 percent as Democrats. Post-ABC-Ipsos polls are calibrated to match Pew’s estimates for partisanship, and the latest poll reflects the national shift in party leanings.

Read detailed results and cross tabs from the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll . The poll was conducted online Oct. 9-13 among 2,545 U.S. adults nationwide reached through the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, an ongoing panel of U.S. households recruited by mail using random sampling methods. Overall results have a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. The error margin is plus or minus 2.2 points for results among 2,032 registered voters and likely voters; all registered voters were assigned a probability of voting to produce likely voter results. The sample was weighted to match population demographics, 2024 turnout/vote choice and political partisanship.

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Graphics:

President Trump’s approval rating reaches record low

Democrats hold eight-point advantage in national support for Congress

Democratic-leaning groups more certain about voting in 2026 midterms

Economic ratings similar to before 2022 midterms, far worse than in 2018

Record high say they are ‘not as well off’ financially as when Trump entered office

More Americans see gas, staples and splurges are “unaffordable”