Hurricane Isaias tracker: Category 2 storm expected to strengthen before making landfall along Gulf Coast; evacuations ordered in Alabama and Florida
Hurricane Isaias tracker: Category 2 storm expected to strengthen before making landfall along Gulf Coast; evacuations ordered in Alabama and Florida
Officials are urging coastal residents from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle to take the season’s first Atlantic hurricane seriously.
Hurricane Isaias, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, is expected to strengthen as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Friday, bringing damaging winds, drenching rain and the possibility of life-threatening storm surge, prompting mandatory evacuation orders in Alabama and Florida.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Isaias, now a Category 2 storm, is forecast to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday as a Category 1, with damaging hurricane-force winds.
Exactly where is unclear. Current models show the center of Isaias coming onshore anywhere from eastern Mississippi to the western tip of the Florida Panhandle.
The governors of Florida, Alabama and Georgia declared states of emergency ahead of the storm. Numerous counties in Mississippi also did.
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“Floridians should take this time to get disaster plans in place and ensure their hurricane supply kit is stocked,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said, urging residents in the storm’s path to “execute your hurricane plan.”
Mandatory evacuation orders were issued for parts of Alabama’s Dauphin Island and Florida’s Walton, Escambia and Okaloosa Counties.
“Residents should take this storm seriously and evacuate,” the Okaloosa County government said in a news release.
Officials in several coastal cities, including Alabama’s Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, urged voluntary evacuations.
“In anticipation of the expected impacts from Tropical Storm Isaias, the cities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are encouraging all non‑residents, and residents living in low-lying, flood-prone areas to voluntarily evacuate,” Gulf Shores and Orange Beach said in a joint statement.
The University of Alabama said that it is closely monitoring Isaias, but that the Crimson Tide’s home football game against Georgia in Tuscaloosa, Ala., scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, will go on as scheduled. President Trump is planning to attend the game. ESPN’s College GameDay said it will move its popular roadshow inside.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to November, had not gone this late in the year without a hurricane since 1905, according to the Associated Press. A typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes. This year, there had been eight named storms and no hurricanes prior to Isaias.
Where is Isaias now and what is its path?
According to the hurricane center’s latest advisory, as of 8 p.m. ET on Thursday:
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Isaias was located about 290 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River
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It had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph
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It was moving northeast at 13 mph
“Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast Friday night,” the weather service said.
Are there any watches or warnings in effect?
Hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued across portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
A hurricane warning is in effect for:
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Ocean Springs, Miss., to the Bay/Gulf County Line, Fla.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
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The Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to west of Ocean Springs, Miss.
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East of the Bay/Gulf County Line to the Aucilla River, Fla.
A storm surge warning is in effect for:
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The mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, Fla.
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
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The Suwannee River, Fla., to Yankeetown, Fla.
What do the warnings mean?
A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the warning area, per the NHC. It is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds. “Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion,” the weather service said.
A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A storm surge warning means there is a danger of “life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland” — meaning flooding of normally dry land by seawater pushed ashore by the storm — during the next 36 hours.
A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of inundation within 48 hours.
The NHC said the water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in these areas if the peak surge coincides with high tide:
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Ocean Springs, Miss., to Indian Pass, Fla.: 5 to 7 feet
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Mobile Bay: 5 to 7 feet
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Indian Pass to the Steinhatchee River, Fla.: 4 to 6 feet
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Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs: 3 to 5 feet
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Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River, Fla.: 3 to 5 feet
The system is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across the central Gulf Coast — with up to 15 inches possible in some localized areas — which could lead to flash flooding.
An isolated risk of tornadoes will also begin on Friday night in coastal areas of Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwestern Georgia, the NHC said.
What does El Niño have to do with hurricane season?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that starts with unusually warm water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and produces worldwide weather changes
An unusually strong El Niño has contributed to the relatively quiet Atlantic hurricane season by increasing wind shear — rapid changes in wind speed or direction with height — which can disrupt tropical storms and make it harder for them to strengthen into hurricanes.
By contrast, El Niño conditions have contributed to an unusually busy Pacific hurricane season. There have been 21 named storms and 10 hurricanes, both above historical averages. Last month’s Hurricane Polo became the third of the season to reach Category 5 intensity.
“It only takes one storm for a lot of possible destruction,” Lindsey Long, a meteorologist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, told AP. “So you don’t want to put your guard down.”
Hurricane Isaias, the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026, has strengthened into a Category 2 storm as it takes aim at the Gulf Coast from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle.
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