Nor’easter to bring major coastal flooding; hurricane-force gusts in New England
Nor’easter to bring major coastal flooding; hurricane-force gusts in New England
The full fury of a significant September nor’easter will target New England, where high winds lead to extensive power outages and heavy rain swamps outdoor activities this weekend.
The storm and its effects are occurring through the full moon this weekend, which will raise tide levels and lead to major coastal flooding. Long-duration pounding surf will cause extensive beach erosion from North Carolina to southern Maine.
“This storm may be remembered for its destructive coastal flooding and severe beach erosion, especially along eastern Long Island and the Massachusetts coast,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.
Storm surge, tidal flooding into Friday
The pressure difference between high pressure over the interior Northeast and developing low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast is strengthening northeast winds from North Carolina to New York. These winds are pushing ocean and bay waters toward shore, causing coastal flooding. Flooding will be worst around high tide through Friday in the mid-Atlantic region.
Water levels will be 2-3 feet above the average monthly tide level, with some locations approaching 6 feet above that level. The worst conditions are forecast for southeastern Virginia, where water will become trapped at the lower end of the Chesapeake Bay, causing backups along the region’s tidal rivers. Areas in Virginia Beach, Norfolk and Newport News, Virginia, will be inundated for hours at a time.
Farther north from the Delmarva Peninsula to northern New Jersey, tides will be 1-2 feet above the monthly average, with some areas near 3 feet above.
Storm to strengthen, hook into New England this weekend
The nor’easter will affect southeastern New England from Friday into Sunday. The strongest winds and heaviest rain are expected from Friday night through Saturday night across Rhode Island, central and eastern Massachusetts, eastern Connecticut, southeastern New Hampshire and the southern Maine coast.
Damaging winds will pose the greatest threat across southeastern New England, with gusts potentially reaching hurricane force and causing tree damage and power outages.
“Many trees still have their leaves, which catch more wind and place additional strain on their roots, further increasing the risk for trees to come down and may also increase the number of power outages as compared to similar storms,” Porter said.
Rain last week left the soil soggy, increasing the risk that strong winds will uproot trees, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
Falling trees could damage power lines and cause widespread outages.
As the storm approaches New England, strengthening east-northeast winds will push Atlantic water toward shore. Water will pile up in Cape Cod Bay and other bays, sounds, harbors and inlets from Long Island to Maine, flooding low-lying coastal areas.
The storm will draw moisture northward from the subtropical Atlantic, fueling heavy rain across southeastern New England.
Periods of heavy rain across southeastern New England through the weekend could flood streets and small streams, disrupt travel and force changes to outdoor plans.
Rainfall will generally total 1-2 inches from northeastern New Jersey to coastal Maine, with heavier amounts across parts of southeastern New England. Totals of 4-8 inches are forecast from central Massachusetts to Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall is 13 inches.
Improvement coming for mid-Atlantic this weekend, but slowly
Dry air from the Northeast’s interior will sweep southward in the mid-Atlantic later this week, ending the rain and clearing the sky as the storm takes aim at New England and Long Island, New York.
The storm is forecast to loop toward New England, keeping its strongest winds and heaviest rain away from New York City and areas southward to Delaware and eastern Maryland. However, moderate to locally major coastal flooding is still expected around high tide through Friday.
As winds turn more northerly this weekend, coastal water levels should gradually fall across much of the mid-Atlantic. Localized flooding may persist along some back bays, where winds can keep water piled against the shoreline.
Tropical development possible near New England and elsewhere in Atlantic
“Given that the developing nor’easter will be slowly moving over the very warm water of the Gulf Stream for two or three days, the storm may take on some characteristics that would resemble a tropical storm. Such hybrid storms are called subtropical storms,” Porter said. “Regardless of classification, the storm will be impactful, especially for coastal areas.”
Gonzalo and Hanna are the next two names on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season list.
AccuWeather meteorologists are also monitoring a cluster of thunderstorms moving off Africa’s west coast. The disturbance could quickly organize and strengthen in the coming days, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Fay regenerated over the middle of the Atlantic as a depression on Wednesday evening. Some strengthening is forecast in the short term.
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