Russia’s overwhelming manpower advantage against Ukraine is starting to wane
Russia’s overwhelming manpower advantage against Ukraine is starting to wane
What would you do with an $80,000 bonus, more than quadruple the amount of an average annual salary? Or with $140,000 in debt relief?
Those are the questions being posed to men in Russia, as the military advertises multi-million-ruble incentives to fight in Ukraine. Ads plastered on roadside billboards and embedded in young men’s social media feeds are offering eye-watering sums – more than many people earn in years – alongside promises to become a “hero” or be fast-tracked to Russian citizenship.
And yet military recruitment was down by 20% in the first quarter of this year compared to 2025, and there are signs it’s still faltering, according to Russian economy expert Janis Kluge.
The Kremlin’s strategy has long been to outlast Ukraine in an attritional war profiting from its immense population and large military industry that can sustain a slow, grinding campaign. And now, with the Ukraine war in its fifth year, President Vladimir Putin’s war coffers are getting a much-needed boost thanks to the Iran war increasing oil prices.
The problem?
“Rubles don’t fight wars,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He noted that this is the first war in Russia’s history in which the state is paying citizens to fight rather than forcing them – and that is leading to economic strain and manpower issues.
“There are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively, and that Russia has begun to lose more troops than it can recruit,” Gould-Davies said in a recent report.
Analysts say Moscow is resorting to increasingly desperate measures to shore up its forces, and Putin will likely be forced to make more unpopular decisions this year if he wants to continue his invasion of Ukraine.
After all, if a potential military recruit was unwilling to take a hefty signing bonus last year, it is unclear what would make them change their mind now, especially given reports of poor treatment on the front lines and of soldiers bribing their officers to avoid being sent on certain-death ground missions.
Russia has already sent tens of thousands of former prisoners to the front lines, been reinforced by three separate waves of North Korean soldiers and incentivized immigrants to join its military. The government recently announced another recruitment drive, offering to pay off debts of up to $140,000 for men who sign up and might otherwise face penalties for defaulting.
And the conflict’s drain on men of fighting age has had ramifications for the rest of the Russian economy, which is now dealing with a wider labor crisis.
“It’s not just struggling to find people to go to the front… they’re struggling to find people to employ,” Gould-Davies told CNN.
For the defense industry specifically, there are signs that it’s already operating at maximum capacity, with factories working around the clock. That means it’s difficult for Russia to increase the military output any further, while the demand for factory workers places even more strain on the rest of the economy.
“The whole Russian economy is suffering from the most severe labor shortage in history,.” Gould-Davies said.
Nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war, according to some Western intelligence reports, and hundreds of thousands more have left the country to avoid being drafted. The resulting labor shortage is driving up wages, another source of inflation in the country.
“Labor is a scarcer input than physical capital or finance. It is also harder to increase,” according to Gould-Davies. “With effort, it is possible to build a new factory or raise money. But the state cannot dictate the birth rate.”
The labor shortage could compel the Kremlin to recruit more labor from India, North Korea and various African nations to ease pressures on both the civilian and military sectors.
More drastically, it could mean a second forced mobilization of troops, coupled with measures like curtailing the freedom of citizens to leave the country – particularly men of conscription age. That’s something Putin has been keen to avoid, after the first “partial mobilization” proved hugely unpopular and caused many Russians to emigrate.
“The Kremlin will soon face a fundamental choice over whether to radically escalate its demands on Russia’s economy and society or to scale back its war aims,” Gould-Davies predicts.
War heightens economic strain
Some experts, including Maria Snegovaya at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, think the Kremlin can muddle through its recruitment issues by putting more pressure on the regions outside of major cities like Moscow, pushing students to sign military contracts and recruiting more foreign nationals. The fact that the defense sector is approaching maximum capacity also presents difficulties for Putin, but is “not catastrophic,” Snegovaya said.
Economically, though, “the strain is becoming increasingly visible,” Snegovaya told CNN. “This year in particular we see the economic costs finally imposing difficult tradeoffs on the Kremlin.”
She noted that “the fiscal burden of sustaining the war effort” has increased, given that Russia’s military personnel and recruitment costs account for tens of billions of dollars each year, amounting to 9.5% of total federal budget and 2% of the country’s GDP by some estimates.
Russia is experiencing growth stagnation – even recession by some economists’ estimates – as well as rampant business closures and declining consumer confidence, Snegovaya said.
Despite some wage growth, incomes haven’t kept pace with persistent inflation. The official annual inflation rate as of June is 5.52%, according to Russian state media TASS. Ordinary Russian households face food prices that are up more than 18% compared to January 2024, sky-high utility bills, and a recent two-percentage-point hike in sales tax. Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s critical infrastructure have also led to gasoline shortages in some areas and persistent airport delays.
Even though the overall rate of inflation has slowed again, Snegovaya said consumer sentiment on the issue remains negative.
“These trends could …weaken support for the war, potentially increasing social discontent,” Snegovaya said. “However, the regime is boosting its repressive apparatus.”
“The Kremlin has tended to double down on its goals rather than scale them back,” the analyst warned.
Ukraine outpacing on innovation
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s advancements in drone warfare and technology mean its military is inflicting far more casualties on Russia than earlier in the war.
“Ukrainian forces are achieving and out-innovating” on the battlefield, particularly when it comes to their use of tactical drones, according to analyst Kateryna Stepanenko at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Earlier this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that his forces had captured a Russian position using only drones and robots for the first time, and had conducted more than 22,000 unmanned ground missions using robots in just the first three months of 2026.
In May, Ukraine had a net territorial gain of nearly 100 square kilometers (39 square miles), making it the second month in a row that Russian forces experienced a net loss, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.
Russian casualty rates stand at around 30,000 to 35,000 a month, according to Western officials, although estimates vary. Syrskyi has claimed that in May, Ukraine’s drone operators killed or wounded more soldiers than Russia could recruit.
And while Ukraine’s war tech is improving, experts say the Russian army has become weaker as it sends larger numbers of former prisoners and untrained soldiers to the front.
Moscow’s efforts to recruit students for its own expert drone units have been mired in distrust and setbacks, according to Stepanenko, after Russia’s Ministry of Defense committed some drone operators to frontline ground assaults.
“That created a really-not-helpful PR campaign for the unmanned systems forces recruitment,” Stepanenko said.
CNN’s Anna Chernova contributed to this report.
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