Justin Trudeau might find himself fighting for attention at ‘Three Amigos’ summit amid border issues

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OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is hoping to champion North America free trade while settling trade irritants at the “Three Amigos” summit in Mexico City, but his priorities might be drowned out by more pressing border issues between the United States and Mexico.

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Business leaders who are closely following this week’s North American leaders summit expect Trudeau to be on the sidelines as United States President Joe Biden and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador hammer out the migration crisis and the importation of illegal drugs.

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“I think as it’s currently framed, the North American Summit is a lot about Mexico,” said Maryscott Greenwood, CEO of the Canadian American Business Council, who noted that Biden preceded his visit to Mexico by inspecting a busy port of entry for migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

In that context, Trudeau’s main challenge as he steps foot in Mexico City will be “to be relevant and to be heard,” added Greenwood.

“For Canada to be really heard and noticed, it has to have one priority and it has to be really aggressive about it. And I realize that’s sort of un-Canadian,” she said. “But that’s the way it goes with trying to capture the attention and the imagination of the United States, which has a lot going on.”

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Speaking from Mexico City, Louise Blais, a former diplomat and now senior special adviser to the Business Council of Canada, said that while the border issues will be “distracting,” she thinks the Canadian delegation will manage to carve out time for the files it feels are important.

“So that’s a challenge, but that’s not to say that it won’t happen,” said Blais.

Trudeau arrived in Mexico City on Monday for a three-day visit, which will include bilateral meetings Tuesday with Biden and López Obrador as well as meetings with business leaders.

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An official from the Prime Minister’s Office, speaking on background, said that the “overarching priority” for Canada will be strengthening trade relationships, and that will likely include seeking progress in the dispute on Mexican energy policies and addressing United States protectionism.

Canada and the United States entered dispute settlement talks in 2022 over claims that López Obrador’s nationalist energy policies go against the barely three-year old North American trade deal, known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

Speaking to Reuters, Trudeau said he was hoping to make progress on the file during the summit, and that it “needs to be understood as a way to help Mexico develop, a way to continue to draw in investments from companies in Canada and the United States.”

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Blais thinks that the best way forward for Trudeau is getting the message across that North American partners “really do need to work together” if they hope to have equitable access to affordable energy across the continent and that he should use “carrots” rather than “sticks.”

“The sooner we can get these irritants out of the way, the better we can build on all the positive aspects of the relationship,” said Blais.

Blais also expects Biden will be hearing from Trudeau on the Inflation Reduction Act and other “Buy America” provisions that are enshrined in recent U.S. legislation, with Canadians arguing that this type of attitude is “counterproductive, even for the U.S., in the short, medium and long term.”

In an open letter, leaders from business groups in all three countries — the Business Council of Canada, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Mexico’s Consejo Co-ordinador Empresarial — have called on the “Three Amigos” to enhance continental economic competitiveness.

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Canada, Mexico and the United States have an “unprecedented opportunity to position North America as the world’s leading producer of electric vehicles (EVs)”, but it will only succeed if all countries work together “to overcome shortages of key raw materials, encourage investment in new manufacturing capacity, and make it easier for consumers to purchase EVs,” they wrote.

Greenwood said all three countries are at a point when “it makes an awful lot of sense for the U.S., Canada and Mexico to lock arms and confront economic challenges together” and compete with China.

In regards to EVs, Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, said that China remains “the world’s top producer of battery cells and the top source for critical minerals” but added that the lead the country had built is “extraordinary but surmountable if North America works together.”

“The U.S. has capital, Mexico has human capital and Canada has lithium, cobalt, graphite and nickel,” he said.

But Greenwood questioned if Canada is willing to walk the talk on economic collaboration and trade since it has, historically, resisted trilateralism and has instead preferred making separate deals with the United States instead of being thrown in with Mexico.

“I think that… the time has come to kind of get over it and lock arms as a region.”